Achieving the MDGs: Challenges and Prospects
Tanzania is clearly on track to achieving the MDGs related to primary education, gender equality and key targets under the environmental sustainability goal of reducing by half the proportion of people without sustainable access to drinking water and ensuring access to sanitation (see Table below), but is lagging behind in other MDGs goals - partly due to the impact of HIV/AIDS. According to the Participatory Poverty Assessment (PPA), the spread of HIV/AIDS is the single most impoverishing force facing people and households in Tanzania today and if not halted then reversed, threatens not only the achievement of the targets in the PRS but the MDGs more broadly. Although recent statistics and information (2000/01 HBS) show that it is unlikely that Tanzania will reduce extreme poverty by 2015, Tanzania has a potential of reducing food poverty by 2015, if the current efforts to revive and accelerate agriculture production can be sustained.
With a sound policy framework for poverty reduction and its comprehensive Poverty Monitoring System (PMS), Tanzania can achieve the MDGs by 2015, if concerted efforts would be directed towards addressing the HIV/AIDS pandemic, strengthening institutional, structural, policy and infrastructural capacity, improving efficiency in resource mobilization, and strengthening the PRS focus on MDGs as a strategic tool for meeting the 2015 target. The outcome oriented Poverty Reduction Strategies (MKUKUTA and MKUZA) integrate most of the MDGs goals and targets in their policy and the monitoring frameworks with the exception of goal 8. The issue of meeting the resources, human, financial and institutional for the achievement of the MDGs needs to be properly addressed. Building on the important work of the UN Millennium Project on MDG costing for Tanzania and that of the World Bank, Tanzania is going through a rigorous costing exercise to identify the resources required to achieve national development targets and the MDGs.
Table: MDG STATUS – At a glance
|
1990 |
2000 |
2005 |
MDG Target 2015 |
Remarks |
GOAL 1: ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER |
|
Proportion of people living below national basic needs poverty line (%) |
39 |
36 |
- |
19.5 |
Needs attention |
Proportion of people living below national poverty line (food poverty) |
22 |
19 |
- |
11 |
Needs attention |
Percentage of under-weight under-five children (wasting) |
28.8 |
29.5 |
21.9 |
14.4 |
Achieved |
GOAL 2: ACHIEVE UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION |
|
Primary net enrolment ratios (%) |
54.2 |
58.7 |
94.8 |
100 |
On track |
Primary gross enrolment ratio (%) |
|
77.7 (1999) |
112.7 |
100 |
Achieved |
GOAL 3: PROMOTE GENDER EQUALITY AND EMPOWER WOMEN |
|
Ratio of girls to boys in primary school (%) |
0.98
(1991/92) |
0.98 |
0.98 |
1.0 |
On track |
Ratio of girls to boys in secondary school (%) |
|
45.91 |
46.64 |
|
|
Ratio of females to males in tertiary education (%) |
|
33.52 |
37.12 |
|
|
Proportion of women among members of Parliament (%) |
|
21 |
30.4 |
|
|
GOAL 4: REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY |
|
Under-five mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) |
|
147
(1999) |
112
(2004) |
64 |
Needs attention |
Infant mortality rates (per 1,000 live births) |
115 |
99 |
68
(2004) |
38 |
On track |
Proportion of children vaccinated against measles |
|
78.2 |
80 |
90 |
On track |
GOAL 5: IMPROVE MATERNAL HEALTH |
|
Maternal mortality rate (per 100,000 live births) |
529
(1996) |
|
578 |
133 |
Needs attention |
Births attended by skilled health personnel |
43.9 |
35.8 |
46 |
90 |
Needs attention |
GOAL 6: COMBAT HIV and AIDS, MALARIA AND OTHER DISEASES |
|
HIV cases detected |
5.5 |
9.4 |
6.8 |
<5.5 |
On track |
Number of malaria cases and incidences (cases per 100,000) |
|
500,000 |
65,7453 |
18,062 |
On track |
Number of tuberculosis cases and incidences (cases per 100,000) |
188 |
|
479 |
|
|
GOAL 7: ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY |
|
Proportion of land area covered by forest |
46% |
|
37.5% |
|
Needs attention |
Proportion of people using solid fuels (wood, charcoal, dung) |
90% |
90% |
94% |
|
|
Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved water source (Rural/Urban) |
|
42/85
(2002) |
53/73
(2003) |
|
Needs attention |
Proportion of people with access to improved sanitation (Rural/Urban) |
|
91 (2002) |
88.9 / 98.5 |
|
On Track |
GOAL 8: DEVELOP A GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR DEVELOPMENT |
|
External resources -direct budget support (USD mill.) |
|
1,100 |
1,700 |
|
|
Total external debt stock (USD mill.) |
|
7,482 |
8,135 |
|
|
Source: MDG Report 2006
|
